College football Week 13 picks against the spread: Stewart Mandels predictions

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Well, folks, last week wasn’t pretty, which is pretty much on par for my season. But Rivalry Week gives me an excuse to jam in a couple of extra games and, in turn, hopefully juice my record.

Last week: 4-7 against the spread
Season: 64-66-2

(All point spreads come from BetMGM; click here for live odds. All kickoff times Eastern.)

No. 12 Ole Miss (-10) at Mississippi State, 7:30 p.m., Thursday, ESPN

The Egg Bowl rarely fails to disappoint, so I’m counting on a 5-6 Bulldogs team playing for an interim coach, Greg Knox, to play above itself and give us some post-turkey entertainment. Rebels quarterback Jaxson Dart has been a one-man roller coaster and might struggle on the road. But Mississippi State doesn’t have enough weapons on offense.

Ole Miss 26, Mississippi State 20
The pick: Mississippi State +10

No. 17 Iowa at Nebraska (-2.5), Noon, Friday, CBS

It does not speak well for the nation’s 17th-ranked team that it’s an underdog to a 5-6 foe that has scored more than 20 points only once in eight conference games. The over/under on Iowa’s games gets lower by the week — this one is a comical 26.5. But the Hawkeyes just keep finding ways to win, so why pick against them now?

Iowa 12, Nebraska 10
The pick: Iowa +2.5

Texas Tech at No. 7 Texas (-12.5), 7:30 p.m., Friday, ABC

Texas Tech is on a three-game winning streak but still doesn’t inspire much confidence. UCF averaged 6.8 yards per play in the Red Raiders’ 24-23 win last week. While Texas’ offense has sputtered of late, it has enough weapons in wide receivers Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell and freshman running back CJ Baxter to clinch a Big 12 championship berth.

Texas 30, Texas Tech 17
The pick: Texas -12.5

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix has completed 78 percent of his passes this season. (Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)

No. 16 Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon (-13.5), 8:30 p.m., Friday, Fox

The 8-3 Beavers have a good team, led by running back Damien Martinez. They lost by 3 points at now-15th-ranked Arizona and 22-20 to then-No. 5 Washington last week. But Oregon is playing at such a high level. Quarterback Bo Nix is a 78 percent passer, and the Ducks are tied for second in yards per carry (6.0). And they’re out for revenge in this one.

Oregon 38, Oregon State 24
The pick: Oregon -13.5

No. 2 Ohio State at No. 3 Michigan (-3.5), Noon, Saturday, Fox

This should be the type of defense-dominated game in which big plays are hard to come by and whoever can break even a couple of them wins. Ohio State has a couple of home run guys in running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. But I’m not confident the Buckeyes’ offensive line can hold up against Michigan’s defense.

Michigan 17, Ohio State 13
The pick: Michigan -3.5

Texas A&M at No. 14 LSU (-11.5), Noon, Saturday, ESPN

LSU is all in trying to help Jayden Daniels win the Heisman Trophy, and this is his last opportunity to impress the voters. Texas A&M’s 16th-ranked defense is the highest LSU has faced all season. But the Tigers still own the nation’s 112th-ranked defense, and the Aggies will be playing with nothing to lose. This might not be as lopsided as expected.

LSU 38, Texas A&M 35
The pick: Texas A&M +11.5

No. 8 Alabama (-14.5) at Auburn, 3:30 p.m., Saturday, CBS

There have been some wild Iron Bowls at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Just two years ago, it took Alabama four overtimes to win the thing. Two years before that, Nix, then a freshman, bested Mac Jones and the Tide. But man, New Mexico State? I can’t conjure up a formula where Auburn hangs in there for longer than a half.

Alabama 34, Auburn 10
The pick: Alabama -14.5

Washington State at No. 4 Washington (-16.5), 4 p.m., Saturday, Fox

Washington State shook off its six-game losing streak with a fury last week, pounding Colorado 56-14. We finally got to see the return of the Cam Ward from earlier this season. Wazzu’s quarterback might hit some deep balls against Washington’s susceptible secondary, but I’d expect to see peak Michael Penix Jr. in his final game at Husky Stadium.

Washington 45, Washington State 27
The pick: Washington -16.5

No. 5 Florida State (-6.5) at Florida, 7 p.m., Saturday, ESPN

How do you forecast a game in which both teams will be playing without their quarterbacks? At least Jordan Travis’ replacement, Tate Rodemaker, has meaningful experience. Florida’s Max Brown is green. And FSU still has weapons in running back Trey Benson and wide receivers Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman. They’ll be facing Florida’s 129th-ranked defense.

Florida State 31, Florida 20
The pick: Florida State -6.5

No. 1 Georgia (-24.5) at Georgia Tech, 7:30 p.m., Saturday, ABC

Georgia Tech quietly has had a decent season (save for that weird Bowling Green loss), and if the ACC’s divisions still existed, Tech would be first in the Coastal with its 5-3 conference record. But Georgia is Georgia. Unless the Dawgs get caught looking ahead to Alabama next week, they should cruise past the Jackets for a sixth straight year.

Georgia 45, Georgia Tech 16
The pick: Georgia -24.5

It was disappointing to see the new Big 12 is not protecting Farmageddon, which has been played annually since 1917. The Cyclones have had their moments this season but are staring at a 6-6 finish. K-State has won five of its last six, the only setback coming in overtime at Texas. And it still has a shot at reaching Arlington.

Kansas State 31, Iowa State 20
The pick: Kansas State -10

North Carolina (-2.5) at No. 22 NC State, 8 p.m., Saturday, ACC Network

UNC dropped out of the College Football Playoff committee’s rankings this week, and NC State moved in. The Wolfpack have knocked off the Tar Heels the past two seasons and might have their best team yet under Dave Doeren. If Drake Maye is on, he’ll be tough to stop, but UNC’s defense hasn’t stopped much of anyone.

NC State 28, North Carolina 27
The pick: NC State +2.5

Mandel’s upset special: Miami (-8.5) at Boston College, Noon, Friday, ABC

Year 2 for Mario Cristobal hasn’t been as disastrous as Year 1, but it hasn’t been confidence-inspiring, either. The Canes are just 6-5 and a brutal 2-5 in ACC play, and they’re back to having to rely on quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who was previously benched by Cristobal. BC has the same 6-5 record but has been a pleasant surprise. The Eagles win at home.

Boston College 23, Miami 20
The pick: Boston College +8.5

GO DEEPER

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(Top photo: Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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